Lionel Messi scores too many goals.
In the past two seasons alone he's scored over 150 goals in all competitions. Any detailed analysis would conclude that that's a lot of goals.
The main objective of soccer is to score more than the opposition, so heady goal tallies shouldn't be a problem. The issue is that Barcelona is becoming increasingly reliant on Messi.
Ever since David Villa broke his leg in the 2011 Club World Cup, Barca has lacked a significant scoring alternative to the Argentine. The second-highest team scorer in La Liga the past two seasons has hit 11 (Cesc Fabregas this season, Alexis Sanchez in 2011-12). Compare that with Villa's 18 in 2010-11, Zlatan Ibrahimovic's 16 in 2010 and, the last Barca player to outscore Messi, Samuel Eto'o's 30 in 2009.
Here's the percentage of Barcelona's league goals scored by Messi by year: 22 percent in 2008-09, 35 percent in 2009-10, 33 percent in 2010-11, 44 percent in 2011-12, 40 percent in 2012-13. Note that the year when he contributed the largest share, 2012, Real Madrid won the title.
Four league trophies in five years is spectacular. Barcelona has also reached the semifinal stage of the Champions League five years running, a record. Messi has scored 40 percent of his team's Champions League goals four years in a row, including during the 2011 triumph.
Jordi Alba, with two goals, was second on Barcelona for UCL goals. The four years prior, the second-highest Barca goalscorer in Europe hit four or five (Pedro 2010-12 and Thierry Henry in 2009).
Tito Vilanova has streamlined the Barcelona attack through Messi. When you have the best player in several generations, ride him. However, as the comprehensive 7-0 aggregate loss to Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinal attested, the other 10 guys matter.
Injury hobbled Messi against Bayern. The Catalans could have used a secondary option.
Enter Neymar.
The club shelled out 57 million euros to sign the next great Brazilian star. Barca doesn't normally shy away from high price tags on strikers (Ibrahimovic, David Villa, Sanchez) and had extra incentive here. First, other clubs, reportedly including Real Madrid, wanted Neymar this summer. Secondly, only certain players fit into Barcelona's system.
Any supplemental scorer brought in needs not only to gel with Barca's precise passing style but also has to provide goals from wide positions. Messi, the best player in the world, already called dibs on the middle.
Neymar excels starting from a wide left position with leeway to bear down on goal. He won the golden boot in Brazil three years in a row and scored nearly a goal a game since the start of 2012.
By far the biggest challenge of the 21-year-old's career will be to make sure Barcelona doesn't have to overspend on yet another striker next season.
The sophomore slump
How do you replace David Beckham?
The LA Galaxy, with an extra Designated Player spot in hand, tried with Real Madrid's Ricardo Kaka. They tried a fellow Englishman, but Frank Lampard signed a contract extension with Chelsea instead. Even with former AEG CEO Tim Leiweke in the fold, the following act proved elusive.
Next attempt: a reported $8 million bid for Giovani Dos Santos.
Galaxy president Chris Klein said the club would aggressively pursue a third DP this summer, and $8m would likely be more than any MLS team has paid in a transfer fee.
For the Galaxy, Dos Santos ticks every box. He's young (24), coming off the best season of his career (six goals and seven assists in La Liga), hugely popular with the Latino market as a key Mexican international and nominally available. Fittingly with Gio's luck, his best club season came during a relegation campaign, with Real Mallorca going down on the last day of the season.
Unfortunately for Los Angeles, MLS probably doesn't appeal to Dos Santos at this stage of his career. The former Barcelona prodigy found his way again last season following a pitiful stint at Tottenham (and subsequent loans to Ipswich Town, Galatasaray and Racing Santander). A team in Spain's top flight will likely offer him employment, with Valencia linked.
That last DP roster spot will start burning a hole in Klein's back pocket soon.
Gambling with house money
Radamel Falcao may be the best pure striker in the world. Last year his 40 goals in all competitions led Atletico Madrid to the promised land of the Champions League.
So naturally he joined a newly promoted team in France that, even when it made it to the Champions League final in 2004, didn't average much more than 10,000 people per game.
AS Monaco presents an interesting career choice. Owned by Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev, the principality club doesn't have to pay taxes on wages. The rest of France coughs up 75 percent for salaries over 1m euros.
So if Monaco and, say, Paris Saint-Germain chase the same player and offer him a similar wage packet, the overall cost to PSG would be four times as much as it would setback Monaco.
That sort of math has already convinced Ricardo Carvalho and Porto duo James Rodriguez and Joao Mourinho to join Falcao.
Monaco should finish in the European places its first year back in Ligue 1. Later, it will likely challenge PSG, which only bowed out of the Champions League quarterfinals to Barcelona on away goals. France could become substantially more prominent on the continental soccer scene just as Falcao stretches out the tail end of his prime.
And if not? Well, it's not much of a gamble: he'll still be filthy rich.
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